Hey McCain, Give em a Buckeye and Milk it for all it's Worth!

A memo from Rick Davis of the McCain campaign states:

Until John McCain secures 1,191 delegates, we must campaign aggressively for the Republican nomination, and that requires additional resources in some of the most populous states in the country. We cannot turn our attention to the Democrats and their enormous war chests until this nomination is secure, and we cannot accomplish that goal without your additional help.

Okay, so, this is a fundraising letter - but I do think there is a misconception here, in my opinion.
That is - there's no reason McCain can't run against the Democrats and for the nomination at the same time.

It is true that Texas is a big state with a lot of delegates that McCain will win in November anyway, and so wouldn't need to spend much time there. But there's also some oppurtunities McCain can take advantage of while he's fighting to get the rest of the delegates he needs to make the nomination official.

For some of the states coming up, such as Vermont and Rhode Island, McCain is a pretty sure bet to win the nomination and yet it is unlikely, given recent trends, for the GOP to win there in November. On the other hand there are some places which McCain can build up enthusiasm for his nomination at the same time as he seeks out voters for the general.

This month, the next big state primary is Wisconsin. A few weeks later is Ohio. In these two cases we have states that McCain needs to appeal to not in order to win the nomination contest, but also because these are "swing" states. Considering trends in recent elections, in order for John McCain to win the Presidency he will need to win one or the other. Bush lost Wisconsin both in 2000 and 2004 by a margin of less than 0.5 %. Bush won Ohio both times by less than 4 %. Since Ohio is worth 20 electoral votes to Wisconsin's 10, Ohio is more crucial. Still, Wisconsin could prove vital as well, especially if Iowa or another state goes Democratic. And the fact that McCain has worked closely with Sen. Feingold may help swing independents. Ohio and Wisconsin are both real possibilities for McCain to win in November, but neither is a sure bet right now. It would make sense to take this opportunity to focus on these two states and reach out to general election voters while at the same time reaching out to the Republican base. Both independents and Republicans are able to vote in the primaries of Ohio and Wisconsin, and McCain will need the support of both groups in order to win in the general.

Californians Find Themselves in McCain Territory

It looks like McCain struck gold all across the State - from San Diego to San Fransisco to Sacramento to Del Norte.

Take a look at these maps - only three counties went for Romney, and in over a dozen counties the margin of victory for McCain was in the thousands. Romney's biggest margin of victory was 662 in Shasta County.

Of course, the delegates are awarded by congressional district, not by counties - but it seems McCain is ahead in 51 out of 53.

So out of California's 170 delegates, McCain will win about 164.

And this in a closed primary, McCain's statewide margin over Romney is 8 percent.

The CNN exit poll indicates, surprisingly, that McCain only carried one-third of Lations, but almost two-thirds of Asian-Americans. I would have expected McCain to do better among Latinos than among the general population of Republicans, but this doesn't seem to be the case. However, McCain did still place first among Latinos, and Huckabee came in second. Among Asian-Americans, Giuliani - who dropped out of the race last week - did better than Romney.

Less than half of California Republican primary voters believe in deporting illegal immigrants. Three-fourths of the primary voters were White non-Latinos, and they didn't flock to Romney's anti-"amnesty" position. San Diego and Imperial, right on the border, went for McCain - dashing Romney's hopes of cashing in on his embrace of the Tancredo wing of the party in a place he might of expected resentment toward immigrants. Even as conservatives rightly are concerned about the rule of law, it seems that - right here on the border - most are not driven by the hate that characterizes the rhetoric of pundits who live far removed from the problem.

Romney Wins by Campaigning Against Economic Liberty

By now you may have heard some of Romney's . . . devastating economic record as Governor of Massachusetts.

But in his race for the GOP nomination, he's putting his big government - big mandate - "taxachusetts" record behind him, right?

Maybe not.

Ross Douthat points out the economic fascism (big government + big industry) aspects of Romney's campaign promises to fix the economy. Romney's rhetoric

appeals to voters in places like Michigan precisely because it goes much further to the left than Mike Huckabee's substance-free talk about how the current period of economic growth isn't doing all that well by the working class, or John McCain's straight talk about how Michiganders can't expect the federal government to bring back the glory days of Chrysler and GM.

Cato's Jerry Taylor asks

What does it say about the Republican Party when the leading fusionist conservative in the field - Mitt Romney, darling of National Review and erstwhile heir to Ronald Reagan - runs and wins a campaign arguing that the federal government is responsible for all of the ills facing the U.S. auto industry, that the taxpayer should pony up the corporate welfare checks going to Detroit and increase them by a factor of five, that the federal government can and should move heaven and earth to save “every job” at risk in this economy . . . ?

Publius Endures points out not only that Romney has no appeal to libertarians, but also that Romney lost to McCain among voters who were the most unsatified with the current economy (as, I recently noted, he did in New Hampshire).

Let me just admit, for myself, I can't figure out exactly why so many people are voting for this guy.

If all you want is tax cuts* without restraint in spending, maybe Romney is fine (*so long as you don't mind "fees"). If you want to blame your woes on immigration, Romney's your man. If you like the idea of government and industry coming together to spend more of your money and increase the deficit while hurting trade, Romney's right up your alley.

But if you value economic freedom, an end to favors for monied interests, and frugality in government, vote McCain.

But you don't have to take my word for it. Just ask the Senate's"Dr. No"

Beyond Michigan: McCain has a future, Romney . . . eh, not so much

Yeah, I'm disappointed. You bet. Even angry for a few minutes.
Michigan went for empty promises over truth and heroism.

Though, I should point out that at least there was a majority of voters who did *not* vote for Romney.

I really wanted to come home after a long day and celebrate a little.


But this thing is far from over, and we need to keep each of these primaries in perspective.
As "The McCain Times" noted today

Polls have put Romney slightly ahead of McCain… and Democrats (including the DailyKos) are pushing for their voters to cross party-lines and vote Romney in order to create chaos for Republicans.

But it doesn’t matter that much if he wins. It is absurd to celebrate winning your homestate, where your dad was governor, and where you’ve outspent your opposition by a 7-1 margin. A Romney win means that he can continue on until February 5th, but he won’t be the nominee.

Furthermore, McCain finished a strong second where he was polling in fourth place about a month ago. And it's looks like he'll be coming out of Michigan with a number of delegates as well (Right now CNN has him with 9 to Romney's 12).

What's next?

South Carolina, where it looks to be between McCain and Huckabee.

Nevada, also on Saturday (where it's anyone's guess at this point).

And then Florida, where it looks to be between McCain, Giuliani, and Huckabee.

Last before "Super Tuesday" on Feb 5 is the Maine Caucus. I'm guessing McCain is the best bet here, especially considering he has the endorsement of both of Maine's Senators (Collins and Snowe) as well as Fmr. Gov. McKernan.

So in the run up to Super Tuesday, John McCain is the only one who is competitive in all four contests. Romney's only chance before then is Nevada.

And as for Super Tuesday? Well, that's predicting ahead quite a bit, but at least McCain is ahead nationally by about 10 percent, and is competitive in a few places he wasn't supposed to be.

Giuliani was supposed to have California and New Jersey locked up.

But the latest two polls have McCain leading in California.

And the latest poll in New Jersey has McCain leading there too.

Of course, Romney may have a little post-Michigan bounce in the polls, draw in some new money. And well, I suppose it's nice for him and his family that he could win one of his home states anyway.

He sure ain't got no chance in Massachusetts.

oh what the hey - Michigan Predictions

So my predictions for New Hampshire were a bit off for both parties, but my GOP predictions for Iowa were pretty close. So, here it goes:

GOP - high turnout

McCain: 34
Romney: 25
Huckabee: 19
Paul: 8
Giuliani: 8
Thompson: 4
Hunter: 1

Dems - low turnout

Clinton: 60
Uncommitted: 37
Kucinich: 3

The Democratic race is a bit crazy, since Party HQ has said they violated the rules and so wont get their delegates seated. Excepting Clinton, the top-tier candidates didn't put their names on the ballot here. I'm thinking you'll see Clinton supporters come out, Kucinich supporters come out. Many Obama and Edwards supporters will come out and vote uncommitted.
But I'm guessing a large number will go where their votes will actually count, and vote in the Republican party. The Kos crowd will go to Mitt to try to sabotage the GOP. Some of the anti-war crowd will go to Ron Paul. Some of the social liberals will go to Giuliani. Some of the economic populists will go to Huckabee. But the biggest draw for independents and Democrats in the GOP race will be to climb aboard the Straight Talk Express.

New Hampshire Exit Polls Demonstrate McCain's Broadbased Appeal

I spent this summer working at a camp in New Hampshire. I saw a lot of signs for Mitt, for Rudy, for Obama. But I wasn't seeing any for John McCain. I didn't quite get it. Over the course of the summer, McCain's poll numbers were cut in half both here and nationally. I'm still not sure why it took so long for New Hampshire Republicans and independents to come back to the maverick they embraced in 2000. But in the last month and a half, New Hampshire came back to him.

Part of it was the success of the strategy McCain had long advocated in Iraq. Part of it was the endorsements by newspapers to the right and left. And a large part of it was McCain's interaction with people, his candidness and his character, his willingness to engage those who disagree with him.

CNN's exit poll numbers show McCain's broadbased appeal. He won absolute majorities of those who look most for experience and most for honesty in a candidate. He won among both men and women. He won among those who are married and those who are single. He won those with college degrees and those without. He won among the most pro-life and the most pro-choice. He won those who cited their top issue as Iraq, terrorism, and the economy. He won among those who attend church weekly, monthly and those who never do. He tied Huckabee for evangelicals and Mitt Romney for Catholics. He won every income bracket except those making over 150K.

John McCain said he no longer owns a gun, but he won 42 percent of those here who do. This septuagenarian won over not only young people, but also those in every age group except his own. This staunch defender of the troop surge in Iraq won not only among those who were strongly against the Iraq War, but even among those who had at least a somewhat favorable view of Ron Paul.

While Romney bills himself as the candidate as change, John McCain won voters who are most anxious for that change. While Romney is running for CEO-in-chief, John McCain won among those most worried about the economy. With the GOP overseeing seven years of a rapidly rising national debt, McCain is the one trusted to stop it. And with Bush-Cheney unpopular among people across the political spectrum, McCain won those dissatisfied with the current administration.

With the large number of moderates and independents who voted in the New Hampshire GOP Primary, it may well be the case that these results are not consistent with the views of card-carrying Republican voters in other parts of the country. What it does demonstrate is that John McCain stands the best chance to win against the Democrats, especially in a swing state like New Hampshire.

Predictions for New Hampshire Primaries

GOP:
McCain 36
Romney 24
Paul 14
Huckabee 13
Giuliani 8
Thompson 4
Hunter 1

Dems:
Obama 42
Clinton 29
Edwards 19
Richardson 7
Kucinich 4

taking Iowa for granite

sure Iowa and NH aren't exactly the same but is there anything that we can learn from Iowa's results? does this change the race there?

For starters, Iowans ultimately rejected the establishment candidates (Hillary and Mitt), and gave an unexpected level of support to the insurgent candidates Obama and Huckabee. In a result that was unthinkable just a few months ago, Ron Paul outperformed Giuliani by over 2 to 1. Certainly independents and young people played a big role for both Obama and Paul, coming out in numbers that were not anticipated by pollsters. Young and independent voters may come out in even greater numbers for New Hampshire, likely to buck the establishment there again. New England's independents, young people, and liberals are a natural constituency for Obama, so the Iowa win is likely to propel him further in New Hampshire. The beneficiaries of young and independent voters in New Hampshire for the GOP will be less predictable, and probably fall both to Ron Paul and McCain, unless others can make significant inroads.

The big word coming out of Iowa is "change." Hillary and Mitt are already trying to refashion themselves as the real agents of change for New Hampshire voters. It's not likely to work. Clinton and Romney already suffer from appearing stiff and inauthentic. Trying to reinvent themselves once more will feed into the perception of a chameleon politician who doesn't have any real core, especially as try to go after Obama and McCain - who have each built their entire political careers on a theme of reform.

What does each GOP candidates need to do to succeed in New Hampshire? It's been built up as showdown time between Romney and McCain. Indeed, it's hard to see how either one continues if they don't win here. But that doesn't mean either one will drop out if he finishes a close second. Both are still polling high in Michigan, so it might not be the end of the line. But in order to not win and still continue on, it has to be a very close second place.

A month ago McCain was tied in the polls with Giuliani for a very distant second place. Now he's polling right up with Romney at about 30 percent, while Romney's numbers have been basically stagnant. McCain's greatest strength has been his performance in town hall meetings, and to win he needs to keep that up and talk face to face to as many folks as he can. He's really good at that, and it's more meaningful than any television ad he could show. He also needs to keep Romney from dragging him into too much of a mud-fight. He needs to bring the discussion back to his own vision about what we owe America's future, and really demonstrate he's in a different league from Romney. Huckabee may not win over a lot of voters in New Hampshire, but Huckabee's clean campaign strategy will.

Romney has two options right now. He has to either 1) attract undecided voters or 2) keep them at home ( or send them to Giuliani or Obama) by planting doubts about McCain. If he wants to attract new voters, he has to demonstrate his personal side, talk about his own life and struggles, show he's human and not a political robot. His other choice is to continue to go negative against McCain, even if it drives independents away from himself . He can't do both - and if Iowa is any indication, he'll choose the latter, and it won't work there either.

For the other candidates it's not a matter of having to win, but to make a strong third finish.
Giuliani's support in the past month has eroded almost as quickly as McCain's has risen. His best chance for a rebound is if voters buy into Romney's negative ads against McCain without buying into Romney. Since Romney has also gone after Giuliani, this is not very likely. Rudy has been going down steeply, and with results just above Duncan Hunter in Iowa, it's more likely he'll come in behind both Huckabee and Paul than that he will signifcantly recover in the next few days.

Thompson is currently sixth in the polls in NH. Had he made an investment here earlier he might have done well. There are plenty of small government folks here who aren't followers of Ron Paul. He could have reached out to with his commitment to entitlement reform and a less energetic federal government. But it seems too late now.

Huckabee won't have a base of evangelical support like he did in Iowa, but he still could capitalize on his win there to make a strong third-place finish. New Hampshire Republicans are generally - like Huckabee - environmental conservationists, committed to gun rights - and could be very responsive to his call to abolish the income tax.

Finally, if Ron Paul is likely to make a splash anywhere, it will probably be in the "Live Free or Die" State. A strong third place finish here is very possible. While he almost certainly wont win a single state, he has enough funds and enthusiastic support that he wont drop for quite a while yet.

As for Duncan Hunter - if he came in that low in conservative/populist Iowa, I don't know how he expects to make any progress - it's time to pull out. If he's most interested in punishing illegal immigrants he should back Thompson. If he's most interested in stopping free trade he should back Huckabee. If he's most interested in starting WW4 with Iran and China he should back Giuliani. If he's not sure what's most important to him, he should follow Tancredo's lead and back Romney - and I'm betting he just might.

mccain's victory speech

I say victory speech because McCain has basically tied Thompson for third place at about 13 percent (final results pending), where the expectation just a week or two ago was fifth or sixth at half that.

watch it here

McCain congratualted Huckabee for his victory in Iowa and his positive campaigning.
Lessons from Iowa:

1) "You can't buy an election"

2) "Negative campaign's don't work. They don't work there and they don't work here in New Hampshire"

Will Mitt get the message? Maybe McCain can get him to call a truce? Here's to hoping.

McCain also says he thinks that New Hampshire voters will decide independently of what happens in Iowa.

Some have said they expect an Obama victory (or any Hillary loss) in Iowa would be bad for McCain's prospects in New Hampshire because the independents would go for Obama rather than McCain. Actually, it's Romney that for quite some time was pulling the lead with independents. But now, with McCain's momentum, and the fact that he's gaining among both Republicans and independents, I don't think it's much of any issue either way. The good news for McCain would be that independents are increasingly deciding between him and Obama, rather than between Obama and Romney.

watching iowa caucuses on c-span

I've been watching the Iowa Caucuses being broadcast on C-SPAN. Democratic caucuses are on C-SPAN, while GOP is on C-SPAN 2.
For Carroll County (Precints 1-4), John McCain picked up quite a number of votes, more than Romney or Huckabee. Giuliani got a few though less than Thompson or Paul. Alan Keyes picked up a couple, but none for Duncan Hunter.
Watching the Democratic Caucus just now was generally more interesting because they use head counts rather than paper ballots, and if a candidate doesn't get at least 15 percent, then their supporters go to someone else. In this case, the second choice seemed to be Edwards and Obama. With 6 delegates given proportionally, 3 went for Obama, 2 for Edwards and only 1 for Clinton. Some are projecting now that Obama will be the winner statewide. It certainly is interesting to see Obama do so well in a state with so few black voters, and it should be a testament to many coastal liberals who assume that the middle of the country is racist.
Overall, looks like McCain is coming in fourth just behing Fred Thompson, but Huckabee seems to be as far ahead of Romney as Romney is of Thompson and McCain.
Neither McCain nor Rudy invested much in Iowa, but McCain is in the double digits, and Rudy might get 5 percent if he's lucky.

you can see the results by county as they come in being mapped here