Romney Robos In Favor of New Entitlement Spending

From J-Mart at Politico:

Mitt Romney's campaign is sending out automated phone calls to Florida Republicans attacking John McCain on taxes and Social Security, an aide to the former governor confirms.

A Florida Republican up in the Panhandle received a robo today suggesting he "take a hard look at John McCain's record."

"John McCain voted against the AARP-backed Medicare prescription drug program," the call notes, in an obvious effort to give seniors pause about the senator.

So let me get this straight - Romney, that supposed paragon of pure fiscal conservatism, is accusing McCain of voting against a massive new entitlement program?

And as for the AARP, I recall they were less than helpful when G W Bush was interested in reforming Social Security and allow for private investment instead of an IOU placed on a next generation of workers. If Mitt Romney had anything instructive to add to the conversation about policies for America's seniors, you think he might have shown up to the AARP forum in Iowa this past Fall. John McCain has not followed the AARP's political agenda, but that didn't keep him from engaging in the discussion with them along with Mike Huckabee.

One of the things I really admired about Fred Thompson's campaign is that he was willing to offer up a proposal to reform Social Security. Some former Fred-heads may think that Romney is now their man, but if you care at all about making the hard choices necessary for entitlement reform, I do not see how you can support Romney. He is using the same scare-tactics the Democrats have long used to impede any significant progress to relieve the fiscal burden the political establishment is content to leave on future generations of Americans.

taking Iowa for granite

sure Iowa and NH aren't exactly the same but is there anything that we can learn from Iowa's results? does this change the race there?

For starters, Iowans ultimately rejected the establishment candidates (Hillary and Mitt), and gave an unexpected level of support to the insurgent candidates Obama and Huckabee. In a result that was unthinkable just a few months ago, Ron Paul outperformed Giuliani by over 2 to 1. Certainly independents and young people played a big role for both Obama and Paul, coming out in numbers that were not anticipated by pollsters. Young and independent voters may come out in even greater numbers for New Hampshire, likely to buck the establishment there again. New England's independents, young people, and liberals are a natural constituency for Obama, so the Iowa win is likely to propel him further in New Hampshire. The beneficiaries of young and independent voters in New Hampshire for the GOP will be less predictable, and probably fall both to Ron Paul and McCain, unless others can make significant inroads.

The big word coming out of Iowa is "change." Hillary and Mitt are already trying to refashion themselves as the real agents of change for New Hampshire voters. It's not likely to work. Clinton and Romney already suffer from appearing stiff and inauthentic. Trying to reinvent themselves once more will feed into the perception of a chameleon politician who doesn't have any real core, especially as try to go after Obama and McCain - who have each built their entire political careers on a theme of reform.

What does each GOP candidates need to do to succeed in New Hampshire? It's been built up as showdown time between Romney and McCain. Indeed, it's hard to see how either one continues if they don't win here. But that doesn't mean either one will drop out if he finishes a close second. Both are still polling high in Michigan, so it might not be the end of the line. But in order to not win and still continue on, it has to be a very close second place.

A month ago McCain was tied in the polls with Giuliani for a very distant second place. Now he's polling right up with Romney at about 30 percent, while Romney's numbers have been basically stagnant. McCain's greatest strength has been his performance in town hall meetings, and to win he needs to keep that up and talk face to face to as many folks as he can. He's really good at that, and it's more meaningful than any television ad he could show. He also needs to keep Romney from dragging him into too much of a mud-fight. He needs to bring the discussion back to his own vision about what we owe America's future, and really demonstrate he's in a different league from Romney. Huckabee may not win over a lot of voters in New Hampshire, but Huckabee's clean campaign strategy will.

Romney has two options right now. He has to either 1) attract undecided voters or 2) keep them at home ( or send them to Giuliani or Obama) by planting doubts about McCain. If he wants to attract new voters, he has to demonstrate his personal side, talk about his own life and struggles, show he's human and not a political robot. His other choice is to continue to go negative against McCain, even if it drives independents away from himself . He can't do both - and if Iowa is any indication, he'll choose the latter, and it won't work there either.

For the other candidates it's not a matter of having to win, but to make a strong third finish.
Giuliani's support in the past month has eroded almost as quickly as McCain's has risen. His best chance for a rebound is if voters buy into Romney's negative ads against McCain without buying into Romney. Since Romney has also gone after Giuliani, this is not very likely. Rudy has been going down steeply, and with results just above Duncan Hunter in Iowa, it's more likely he'll come in behind both Huckabee and Paul than that he will signifcantly recover in the next few days.

Thompson is currently sixth in the polls in NH. Had he made an investment here earlier he might have done well. There are plenty of small government folks here who aren't followers of Ron Paul. He could have reached out to with his commitment to entitlement reform and a less energetic federal government. But it seems too late now.

Huckabee won't have a base of evangelical support like he did in Iowa, but he still could capitalize on his win there to make a strong third-place finish. New Hampshire Republicans are generally - like Huckabee - environmental conservationists, committed to gun rights - and could be very responsive to his call to abolish the income tax.

Finally, if Ron Paul is likely to make a splash anywhere, it will probably be in the "Live Free or Die" State. A strong third place finish here is very possible. While he almost certainly wont win a single state, he has enough funds and enthusiastic support that he wont drop for quite a while yet.

As for Duncan Hunter - if he came in that low in conservative/populist Iowa, I don't know how he expects to make any progress - it's time to pull out. If he's most interested in punishing illegal immigrants he should back Thompson. If he's most interested in stopping free trade he should back Huckabee. If he's most interested in starting WW4 with Iran and China he should back Giuliani. If he's not sure what's most important to him, he should follow Tancredo's lead and back Romney - and I'm betting he just might.

mccain's victory speech

I say victory speech because McCain has basically tied Thompson for third place at about 13 percent (final results pending), where the expectation just a week or two ago was fifth or sixth at half that.

watch it here

McCain congratualted Huckabee for his victory in Iowa and his positive campaigning.
Lessons from Iowa:

1) "You can't buy an election"

2) "Negative campaign's don't work. They don't work there and they don't work here in New Hampshire"

Will Mitt get the message? Maybe McCain can get him to call a truce? Here's to hoping.

McCain also says he thinks that New Hampshire voters will decide independently of what happens in Iowa.

Some have said they expect an Obama victory (or any Hillary loss) in Iowa would be bad for McCain's prospects in New Hampshire because the independents would go for Obama rather than McCain. Actually, it's Romney that for quite some time was pulling the lead with independents. But now, with McCain's momentum, and the fact that he's gaining among both Republicans and independents, I don't think it's much of any issue either way. The good news for McCain would be that independents are increasingly deciding between him and Obama, rather than between Obama and Romney.

watching iowa caucuses on c-span

I've been watching the Iowa Caucuses being broadcast on C-SPAN. Democratic caucuses are on C-SPAN, while GOP is on C-SPAN 2.
For Carroll County (Precints 1-4), John McCain picked up quite a number of votes, more than Romney or Huckabee. Giuliani got a few though less than Thompson or Paul. Alan Keyes picked up a couple, but none for Duncan Hunter.
Watching the Democratic Caucus just now was generally more interesting because they use head counts rather than paper ballots, and if a candidate doesn't get at least 15 percent, then their supporters go to someone else. In this case, the second choice seemed to be Edwards and Obama. With 6 delegates given proportionally, 3 went for Obama, 2 for Edwards and only 1 for Clinton. Some are projecting now that Obama will be the winner statewide. It certainly is interesting to see Obama do so well in a state with so few black voters, and it should be a testament to many coastal liberals who assume that the middle of the country is racist.
Overall, looks like McCain is coming in fourth just behing Fred Thompson, but Huckabee seems to be as far ahead of Romney as Romney is of Thompson and McCain.
Neither McCain nor Rudy invested much in Iowa, but McCain is in the double digits, and Rudy might get 5 percent if he's lucky.

you can see the results by county as they come in being mapped here

some last minute predictions

For tonight's Iowa caucuses:

1) Huckabee: 30
2) Romney: 24
3) McCain: 15
4) Thompson: 13
5) Paul: 11
6) Giuliani: 4
7) Hunter: 3

For Wyoming
(yes, it's coming up soon - Jan 5. just a wild guess here, no polls that I could find)
1) McCain
2) Romney
3) Thompson
4) Huckabee
5) Paul
6) Giuliani
7) Hunter

For New Hampshire, as of now I'd say -
1) McCain
2) Romney
3) Paul
4) Giuliani
5) Huckabee
6) Thompson
7) Hunter

I'm thinking that Paul will consistently come in ahead of Giuliani. Rudy's losing steam, and a lot of his supporters may drift to McCain in time for South Carolina. Ron - well he's got a lot of enthusiastic testosterone on his side.

quick thoughts on a debate with short answers

I just saw the re-airing on C-SPAN of this afternoon's Republican debate in Iowa.

Huckabee and Thompson appeared to have had the strongest performance, especially considering the absurdly short time-frames allowed for the candidates to answer questions.

Romney had that same ol' twinkle in his eye, but didn't come up with anything memorable to say. Having Alan Keyes there made for some liveliness, made Duncan Hunter seem mainstream.

Finally the candidates talk a little about education - I'll post more on that before too long. Plus more straight talk by McCain on farm subsidies vs. fiscal conservatism.

You can watch it here with real media player.